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Top Investment Picks 2012

Investment Top Picks 2012

Polls, indices, unemployment figures - they all paint a pretty dull picture, but take heart investors because there are always ways of benefiting from a crisis.Top Picks 2012

Healthcare spending is holding up in most countries despite austerity drives hitting other areas and computer games are doing well too. Most likely a reflection of the slowing global economy and people staying at home more. These are just two areas financial journalists are highlighting as opportunities and that's what our Top Picks are all about.

We ask our Fund Managers every January which funds and markets they see potential in for the year ahead so we can share them with you. We're not saying they're sure things...we know there's no such thing, but based on the results they've achieved over the last three years they're definitely worth a look.

  • 2011 was a tough year as the results show, but the Top Picks certainly weren't the worst hit.
  • In 2010, all 11 funds grew over the year ranging from 4% to 35%. No mean feat given the year that was.
  • And in 2009, eight out of nine Top Picks showed positive growth over the year.

Take a minute and check out the Top Picks for 2012.



You'll find a few lines below from our fund mangers on why they think their Top Picks will outperform in 2012.

BlackRock Global Allocation Fund

With this fund you get equity-like return over the longer term with historically much lower volatility (proven long-term returns relative to Global Equities at approximately 1/3 the volatility). You'll also get a large, well resourced and multi-talented team managing it on your behalf.

It's a defensive, multi-asset option in the short-term with current market conditions and providing diversification.

Key points to note:

  • This fund prides itself on its large, diverse and highly experienced team
  • It offers portfolio diversification utilising Cash, Fixed Income as well as Global Equities
  • As well as Equity-like returns with lower volatility when compared to global Equities

Why do you believe this fund will outperform?

  • The fund offers a multi-asset approach with the ability to allocate cash and fixed Income to provide diversification and a defensive portfolio in more challenged markets
  • It has proven over the long-term that it can outperform, providing equity-like returns with a lower volatility
  • Average annual fund return over 5yrs is +3.93%, that's against the FTSE World of +0.16% / Peer Group of -1.29% / Internal Benchmark of +3.66% (to 31 Oct '11, source: DataStream)
Blackrock World Gold Fund

This fund offers:

  • A proven track record for the fund and the BlackRock Natural Resources Team
  • Long-term outperformance of the Gold Equities to Bullion Price and FTSE Gold Mines Index over the last 10 years (source: DataStream)
  • The BlackRock World Gold fund is up c.1,050% against the FTSE Gold Mines Index of c.550% and the Bullion Price of c.650%

Key points to note:

  • This fund has a strong track record, returning c1,050% over the last 10 years
  • It can provide leverage to the gold bullion price
  • It's managed by a highly skilled team, using the breadth and depth of BlackRock's platform to access companies all around the world

Why do you believe this fund will outperform?

In the shorter term, Gold mining equities are at a discount to the Bullion Price. If clients believe the Gold price is supported, which the BlackRock Natural Resources team do, with jewellery demand, investment demand, the Central Banks becoming net buyers of the metal and the constrained supply story, then the equities could, at some point be re-rated by the market, potentially creating good returns for the fund.

Over the longer term, the fund provides diversification to a portfolio and the long-term track record is extremely strong both in absolute terms of performance and against its peer group.

BNP Paribas Target Click Fund 2020

Target Click Funds are a range of 'new generation' guaranteed lifecycle funds. Each offers a specific target date between 2011 and 2040 with the aim of helping you plan for your financial future. If held until maturity, they offer full capital protection along with the certainty that investment gains made during the life of the product are secured.

They combine return, security and flexibility in a single package.

It's a way of planning for your financial future in a convenient way with little time commitment. An ideal solution if you need to save for long-term financial goals such as retirement income but don't want to risk making loses on your investments.

Why do you believe this fund will outperform?

The guarantee of the target click funds is based on a strong financial backbone, they offer a unique guarantee structure and provide full protection if held till maturity. In downward markets the performance of the funds was much better than the performance of our competitors.

As at December 2011 BNP Paribas has a Standard and Poor's rating of AA-.

Fidelity Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Fund

The asset class for this fund has compelling long-term growth characteristics and compliments GEM funds which typically have little exposure in this area. It invests in companies which have very supportive long-term demand drivers such as the industrialisation and urbanisation in emerging markets, metals, energy and agriculture.

It also benefits from some of the world's most positive economic and demographic trends. For example African real GDP is currently growing at 5% with a population close to one billion and an increasingly affluent middle class.

Key points to note:

  • The fund operates a conservative investment approach investing in high quality stocks with proven track records. Typical stock characteristics include strong free cash flow, high dividend yields, strong profitability and low P/E multiples
  • Many companies have strong growth opportunities with high ROEs which are more sustainable than in other emerging markets due to the lack of local competition

Why do you believe this fund will outperform?

  • Emerging Markets represent 31% of global GDP but only 14% of global stock market capitalization
  • The asset class has been heavily sold down due to macro concerns and will outperform in any relief rally
  • EMEA is the cheapest emerging market region - if 'risk-on' returns, we'd expect EMEA to outperform GEM funds.
Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund

This fund has a proven track record in bull and bear markets delivering a combination of strong performance and lower volatility than alternative funds. The allocation to different assets is carefully adjusted over time, within set parameters so it's fully in-tune with the economic cycle and it offers broad diversification through exposure to five asset classes - cash, bonds, equities, property and commodities

Key points to note:

  • As economic conditions change, different asset classes perform differently. The point of multi asset investing is to anticipate these changes and to adjust the amount invested in each asset to deliver a combination of growth while looking to temper, as far as possible, the potential risk of capital loss.
  • The manager, Trevor Greetham, uses his proprietary Investment Clock model to adjust exposure to asset classes across the market cycle

Why you believe this fund will outperform?

  • The fund has a proven long-term track record in asset allocation across market cycles
  • It has delivered low volatility returns and helped to limit losses during periods of market volatility
  • It has the flexibility to react if economic conditions change and a more risk-on investment style is appropriate
Franklin India Fund

As one of the world's fastest growing and dynamic economies, India could be an exciting investment opportunity for investors willing to take some risk to their capital for the potential of strong long-term growth.

Despite the global economic crisis that has dominated financial news, inflationary pressures and fiscal policy challenges, India's economy is still predicted to deliver impressive growth, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting growth in India's goods and services (Gross Domestic Product) to be over 7% in both 2011 and 2012. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook as at September 2011

This is primarily because much of India's growth is domestically driven, with a low dependence on exports helping to cushion it from the effect of the economic crisis in the rest of the world. Instead growth has come mainly from two internal factors: spending on infrastructure and consumption.

The government has sought to improve the country's infrastructure, investing particularly in roads, power transmission and urban transport systems. While an increasing number of India's large population are reaching working age, boosting income levels and increasing the demand of local goods and services.

Franklin Templeton is one of largest foreign local fund companies in India, with more than 30 offices in the country, managing four of the top 40 largest Indian domiciled equity funds. Having invested in the region for many years, the large, experienced investment team uses local insight and detailed research to detect companies they believe are attractively valued compared to their growth potential.

Key points:

India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world

India has strong long-term growth potential, driven by increasing income levels of the large population, strong company fundamentals and investment in the country's infrastructure.

Award winning investment manager with local access and capabilities

Franklin Templeton Investments successfully manages some of the largest domestic equity funds in India. The 13 strong team has an average of 13 years relevant investment experience each (as at 30/09/11). Invests in a diversified range of Indian companies.

The fund managers use a well-established investment process, based on fundamental research to identify Indian companies of any size and in any sector that have the potential to maximise returns within a carefully managed risk framework. As companies are selected on a case by case basis following detailed research, we believe our on-the-ground presence, local knowledge and experience in the market greatly adds to our ability to understand the opportunities and threats that face each company we invest in.

Independently rated

Recognising the strength of the investment process and team, Standard & Poor's have awarded the fund an 'AA' Fund Management rating. It has also been given a 4 star overall fund rating from Morningstar (as at 30/09/11).

Outlook

In India, recent corporate releases suggest that private consumption has remained strong, offsetting the challenges faced by companies in containing cost increases and protecting margins. We believe that in such an environment, higher-quality companies with stable business models, strong free cash flows and good corporate governance practices could flourish. Those companies with strong market positions and pricing power are likely to take advantage of the current situation to reinforce their market dominance.

We believe Franklin Templeton's large, experienced local investment team and research-driven and established investment process leave us well positioned to find the strongest Indian equity investment opportunities and provide attractive risk-adjusted returns over the long-term.

Franklin US Equity Fund

The Franklin US Equity Fund has the freedom to invest across the entire US market, regardless of sector, market cap or index weighting. We look to find companies we believe have growth potential and underlying worth which has not been fully recognised by the market.

Our process emphasises bottom-up stock selection within a disciplined portfolio construction process, and is based on our ongoing fundamental assessment of risk and potential return at the stock and portfolio levels.

This active approach means the fund managers only select stocks if they are convinced strong growth potential exists. A closer look at the Russell 3000 Growth Index reveals why this is so important. Over the 3 years to June 2011, the 30 best performing stocks delivered an average return of 678% while the 30 worst performing stocks lost value, falling by an average of -80%.

Key points:

  • Provides access to the entire US market, regardless of sector, market cap or index weighting, helping to deliver a more diversified US portfolio.
  • Our large, locally-based Franklin US Growth Team of nine investment professionals have an average of 23 years' experience and are also able to draw on the research of their counterparts in the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.
  • The fund management team uses a time-tested and actively managed investment process, based on detailed fundamental company research, aiming to identify companies that our experienced fund managers believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns.

Outlook

The US economy has made major strides forward over the past two years, but it does continue to face some headwinds. Meanwhile, current valuations of US stocks seem quite undemanding to us, and we believe ample opportunities exist in this market for disciplined long-term investors.

Henderson Horizon Global Technology Fund

We offer specialist technology investment expertise, consistent performance and the sector is well positioned to benefit from global macroeconomic recovery with the ability to provide some protection in downside.

Key points to note:

  • The technology sector offers leveraged opportunity to participate in global macroeconomic recovery as consumer and corporate spending returns
  • As a sector it also offers some downside protection if macro-economic trends worsen as it's the only sector with no net debt and highly cash generative
  • The fund Invests with no restrictions on geographical or sector allocation allowing the fund diversity and freedom to uncover new areas of growth potential
  • Specialist technology investment expertise - Fund Managers Stuart O'Gorman and Ian Warmerdam have more than 14 years experience each investing in technology stocks. Managers are dedicated to the technology sector allowing them to build deep understanding of trends driving the sector
  • The fund has outperformed its benchmark over one, three, five and seven years

Why do you believe this fund will outperform?

  • Valuations relative to other equities are near all time lows with the MSCI World Technology index now only trading at a 14% premium to MSCI World on a forward P/E basis
  • The technology sector is the only sector with no net debt. In many cases these companies have over 20% of their market capitalisations in net cash
  • Innovation in technology continues to create entirely new markets (e.g. ipad, Kindle Fire)
  • Technology companies continue to reduce the costs of their products making technology purchases increasingly attractive in an inflationary environment
  • Technology was one of the few areas not to participate in the financial bubble of spending, meaning that any rebound in corporate and consumer spending will be skewed towards replacing an increasingly aging IT installed base
Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund

At Henderson we believe Europe could offer notable opportunities for patient investor moving into 2012. Valuations are at record lows but companies have strong balance sheets and good cash flows. The fund offers strong Investment expertise with proven track record of European Investing and compelling risk adjusted return since launch, through various stages of the economic cycle.

Key points:

  • Real upside potential for European Investments as we approach a resolution to the sovereign crisis
  • Fund aims to identify good quality companies that have potential to increase their return to shareholders over the long-term
  • Strong risk adjusted returns since launch - higher returns at a lower volatility
  • Strong Henderson Pan European Investment Expertise - one of the largest and most experienced European equity teams in London

Why do you believe this fund will outperform?

It has been clear to us for some time that we are in for a period of low growth, both in Europe and globally as governments and banks reduce their debt load . In this environment we expect the strong companies to get stronger and the weak to get weaker. Our stock picking is focused on high quality, market leading companies. We expect many of these businesses will be able to continue to grow and deliver good returns to shareholders.

JPM Europe Strategic Dividend Fund

In a period when equity markets have appeared to be at their darkest, dividend investing has again proven its ability to deliver relative outperformance. The European sovereign debt crisis and concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth are currently contributing to uncertainty and panic trading. The JPM Europe Strategic Dividend Fund is exploiting opportunities created by the current market volatility and should continue to benefit when markets normalise.

Key points to note:

European equities are very cheap while balance sheets are strong

  • European equity returns are driven by global economic growth, not European growth
  • European equity valuations are attractive against their history and compared to other geographic regions

A strong case for dividend investing in Europe

  • High dividend yielding strategies have performed well in the recent market turmoil
  • European dividend yields are attractive versus other asset classes and equities in other regions
  • European equities are still the only asset class that yield more than their ten-year average

Strong performance over all time periods and complementary to peers

  • Strong performance and a low correlation of excess returns relative to peers
  • The JPM Europe Strategic Dividend Fund has delivered consistently strong outperformance by identifying fundamentally sound European stocks with the highest sustainable dividend yields

Why do you believe this fund will outperform?

Dividends have been the primary driver of equity returns over the long-term. Over the last 25 years, 54% of total returns from European equities have come from dividends. We're confident that dividends will be maintained given the strength of corporate profits and earnings - thereby providing a consistent return for investors via the dividend yield.

JPM Global Focus Fund

The JPM Global Focus Fund shows a strong outperformance of its benchmark over time and has maintained a 4 star or higher Morningstar Rating since February 2009.

Only the best companies make it into our portfolio. Our conviction-led approach to bottom up stock picking is a considerable strength. Our equity research analysts select stocks in which they have true confidence, from any region, sector or market-capitalisation. They use their experience and expertise to identify stocks that meet the four demanding criteria necessary to make it into the JPM Global Focus Fund.

Key points to note:

Globally diversified portfolio

The fund invests in attractively valued companies anywhere in the world that we believe are set for a significant earnings recovery.

An experienced team

The dedicated research team boasts an average of 16 years' investment experience and 59 top research analysts who constantly explore and revise the best ideas.

Rigorous selection processes

Only stocks that meet the fund's demanding criteria make it into the fund.

The freedom to exploit opportunities

Flexible portfolio construction gives the manager freedom to capitalise on the best ideas.

Why do you believe this fund will outperform?

The fund's success is underpinned by a truly world-class team of 59 analysts. They support the portfolio management team by identifying undervalued companies with strong profit growth potential. Our analysts have an average industry experience of 16 years and are located in New York, London, Tokyo and Singapore, which enables them to evaluate competing stock ideas on a global basis. In the Thomson Reuters Extel Survey 2011*, we won the Leading Pan-European Fund Management Firm award.

* Thomson Reuters Extel Survey 2011, Leading-Pan European Fund Management Firm and Team.

Merrion Growth Fund

The sovereign debt crisis appears to be entering a new phase, with contagion spreading to France and Belgium and even the safe haven of Europe may not be immune, this being demonstrated clearly by the November 2011 auction of German ten year bonds that failed to attract sufficient bidders for the amount on offer. In general market participants appear increasingly uncertain, hence the increased volatility in financial markets, this is a feature we expect will continue.

When we look at the valuation of different asset classes equities stand out as attractively valued as compared to government bonds. Notwithstanding the likelihood of further short term volatility, the most appropriate way to reflect that valuation preference is through exposure to global equities. On that basis our fund choice for 2012 is the Merrion Growth Fund.

Why invest?

Investment markets are increasingly dynamic. Merrion Investment Managers' investment process and risk controls are structured to deliver consistent outperformance in this challenging environment. We have established an outstanding track record of delivering consistently superior performance within a secure framework. Our focus is on obtaining the maximum return available within the market, rather than merely tracking the performance of indices or other investment managers.

Robeco Chinese Equities Fund

This fund offers:

  • An excellent track record with first quartile performance, outperformance to benchmark and a strong information ratio
  • A concentrated, well-balanced portfolio with a high conviction strategy
  • Access to A-, B- and H-shares (thanks to QFII licence)
  • A well resourced team based in Hong Kong, combining local knowledge and global views (GEM team and strategy/economics teams in Rotterdam)
  • A robust investment process combining top-down and bottom-up elements
  • Stock selection based on a unique blend of fundamental and quantitative research

Key points:

  • Strong GDP growth expected: 8.5% in 2012
  • The authorities are likely to be successful in shifting the emphasis of economic growth from exports to domestic demand and consumption
  • Inflation has peaked and we expect monetary easing
  • China's reserves at 3.2 trillion may be used for economic stimulus in case of a slowdown
  • Valuations are low and expected earnings growth is high
  • The latest 5-year plan offers several interesting investment opportunities, such as:
    1. Income growth and distribution
    2. Technology and innovation
    3. Alternative energy reform
    4. Investment in an upgrade of the manufacturing base
    5. Construction of public housing
Robeco High Yield Bond Fund

Robeco's High Yield Bonds fund offers:

  • Pure, global exposure to corporate High Yield markets
  • One of the larger (over EUR 1.8 billion) global High Yield funds with strong track record in top-3 of our peers on 3- and 5-year (10.5% and 6.8% annualized respectively) record, and one of the few to boast an over 10-year history (7.8% annualized; outperformance on 3-, 5- as well as 10-yr basis).
  • Morningstar Rating ****
  • Not exposed to Emerging debt nor currency risks

Key points:

We've had Fund Manager Sander Bus on board since inception of our high yield strategy in 1999, and since 2001 as the lead manager. We adopt a conservative approach with focus on high quality bonds and avoid highly indebted companies.

We don't limit our investment universe to just liquid high yield bonds, but have a proprietary model that can profit from small cap issuers that have outperformed large cap issuers significantly dating as far back as the early 1990s.

To help Robeco High Yield Bonds outperform we are committed to avoiding price drops (not defaults, as that will impact performance) and managing global credit in an integrated way, instead of regionally with a US team and a European team.

Benefits:

Companies and sectors are analysed in their true global context, and we can profit from very attractive cross-currency issuance that is often overlooked or mispriced.

We also boast one of the largest, most experienced European credit teams with six credit portfolio managers, 10 credit analysts and 3 quantitative researchers and career analysts with high level company knowledge, giving us a sustainable competitive edge.

SAM Sustainable Healthy Living Fund

The Sam Sustainable Healthy Living Fund invests across a broad universe of stocks and profits from exposure to booming health markets (nutrition, fitness, wellbeing) and illness prevention markets (companies that address health and age-related diseases such as obesity, diabetes, cancer) - in one unique investment product.

It's also the only such investment product to use sustainability in the screening and financial valuation. Few equity investment funds invest across the spectrum of nutrition, activity and wellbeing and healthcare.

The Sam Sustainable Healthy Living Fund is designed to outperform during extended market downturns due to its exposure to defensive, non-cyclical sectors and upside growth in bull markets due to consumer spending on staples, medical treatments, pharmaceuticals, nutritional supplements and activity.

Major, long-term drivers listed below should help the fund to achieve superior returns compared to the overall market:

  • demographic growth
  • changing consumer attitudes
  • rising chronic diseases and their prevention (e.g. diabetes, obesity)
  • increase in new and generic drugs
  • scientific development

 

Top Picks Past Performance

Top Picks 2011 Performance

Fund3 Month (Qtr-End)6 Month (Qtr-End)1 Year (Qtr-End)
JPM Global Natural Resources7.78%-14.60%-27.55%
FF - Emerging Euro, Mid-East & Africa8.56%-8.64%-18.69%
Robeco Consumer Trends Equities8.00%-7.70%-4.83%
BGF India-13.22%-23.65%-35.04%
Templeton Global Total Return5.42%4.93%2.29%
Henderson Horizon Global Tech12.22%5.05%-1.37%
Henderson Horizon Asian Div12.90%-2.69%-11.02%
Franklin European Growth5.33%-4.03%-7.29%
Merrion Growth9.91%-0.62%-7.99%
JPM Europe Strategic Div7.81%-8.08%-7.35%
Robeco High Yield Bonds6.12%-2.16%2.27%
FF - Multi Asset Strategic4.32%-0.10%-3.56%
BGF Global Allocation Hedged3.18%-7.80%-5.17%
BNP Paribas Plan Target Click 20201.88%4.51%5.02%
SAM Smart Energy7.25%-11.65%-14.40%
*Performance figures are as of the 31st Dec 2011
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Top Picks 2010 Performance

Fund3 Month (Qtr-End)6 Month (Qtr-End)1 Year (Qtr-End)2 Year (Qtr-End) Annualised
Henderson Asian Pacific Property Equity5.06%-9.84%-24.53%0.53%
Blackrock Latin American10.98%-11.04%-21.28%-0.57%
Merrion Irish Opportunities9.10%-1.23%1.26%3.42%
Robeco Emerging Markets9.98%-11.13%-18.23%0.53%
BlackRock World Energy15.79%-6.33%-10.67%5.76%
Henderson Global Technology12.22%5.05%-1.37%10.54%
SAM Sustainable Climate6.08%-17.47%-22.65%-10.65%
JP Morgan Euro Strategy Dividend7.81%-8.08%-7.35%1.56%
Robeco Agri Business5.65%-13.06%-15.62%1.35%
JP Morgan Global Focus9.17%-9.24%-13.00%3.13%
Fidelity Multi Asset Strategy4..32%-0.10%-3.56%2.41%
*Performance figures are as of the 31st Dec 2011
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Top Picks 2009 Performance

Fund3 Month (Qtr-End)6 Month (Qtr-End)1 Year (Qtr-End)2 Year(Qtr-End) Annualised3 Year (Qtr-End) Annualised
Robeco Emerging Stars8.14%-9.95%-15.90%0.77%26.47%
Henderson Asian Dividend12.90%-2.69%-11.02%4.64%17.39%
Merrion Irish Opportunities9.10%-1.23%1.26%3.42%17.03%
J.P. Morgan  Global Focus9.17%-9.24%-13.00%3.13%18.94%
BlackRock Global Dynamic Equity5.05%-11.17%-8.98%-0.55%7.49%
Henderson American Equity15.32%3.75%-0.11%11.27%15.17%
BlackRock Global Allocation7.47%3.62%-1.25%7.19%10.95%
J.P. Morgan Global Convertibles0.46%-10.34%-9.53%-2.53%7.03%
Citi S&P Capital Protected BondClosedClosedClosedClosedClosed
Robeco Lux-o-rente Bond0.37%6.69%6.91%5.27%2.62%
*Performance figures are as of the 31st Dec 2011
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Warning: Past Performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. Some Investment Funds may be affected by changes in currency exchange rates.

Disclaimer: The views expressed around our Top Picks are those of our fund providers and not RaboDirect's. We don't offer financial advice but suggest you seek independent advice if you think you need it, reading the information provided and having a good old think about the risks involved before you invest. The decision whether to invest or not is yours.

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Investments Blog

Thomas Molloy 
The Irish Independent


The Outlook For 2012

7th January 2012

The next 12 months are likely to dominated by the same emotion as the previous 12 months; fear.

Confusion and its bedfellow fear were the predominant forces at work in the global economy and in the investment community over the past 12 months. There is little to suggest that it will be otherwise anytime soon ...